In a bulb factory, machines P, Q and R manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the total. Of their output 5, 4 and 2 percent respectively are defective…
In a bulb factory, machines P, Q and R manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the total. Of their output 5, 4 and 2 percent respectively are defective bulbs. A bulb is drawn at random and it is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured by machine Q?
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Correct answer: (D) 0.41
Explanation
P(defective) = 0.25×0.05 + 0.35×0.04 + 0.40×0.02 = 0.0125 + 0.014 + 0.008 = 0.0345. By Bayes' theorem, P(Q | defective) = 0.014/0.0345 ≈ 0.41.